U.S. tariffs and chip curbs deepen strain on Asia’s trade axis

China’s exports fell in October for the first time in seven months, underscoring how U.S. tariffs and faltering global demand are weighing on the world’s second-largest economy. Customs data showed outbound shipments declined 1.1 per cent year-on-year, reversing September’s 8.3 per cent rise and marking the steepest drop since February.

Shipments to the United States slumped by roughly a quarter, according to analysts cited by Reuters, as fresh tariffs and weakened orders eroded export momentum. Imports also softened, signalling fragile domestic demand despite a series of recent policy support measures from Beijing.

“The loss of the U.S. market has cut China’s export growth by around two percentage points, or roughly 0.3 per cent of GDP,” one economist told Reuters, noting that new trade barriers were now having “real effects” on production and logistics.

Japan, meanwhile, is expected to post its first quarterly contraction in a year and a half. A Reuters poll of 18 economists forecasts a 2.5 per cent annualised decline in GDP for the July–September quarter, with exports subtracting around 0.3 percentage points from growth. Analysts say renewed U.S. tariffs on vehicles and electronics have curbed external demand at a time when consumer spending remains subdued at home.

The twin downturns come as Washington widens its technology export restrictions. According to The Information, the U.S. administration will move to block Nvidia from selling its latest scaled-down AI processor, the B30A, to China. The chip, capable of training large language models when used in clusters, had been developed to comply with earlier export rules.

The new ban signals an escalation in the Biden administration’s effort to slow China’s access to advanced computing hardware, following previous restrictions on high-end semiconductors and chipmaking equipment. Nvidia has not commented publicly on the report.

Together, the developments point to a deepening realignment in global trade and technology flows. China’s export weakness reflects the immediate cost of tariffs, while Japan’s slowdown highlights secondary effects rippling through Asia’s manufacturing economies. The U.S. chip ban introduces a new layer of strategic constraint — one that binds economic policy more tightly to national security aims.

For policymakers in Beijing and Tokyo, the challenge is to offset U.S. pressure without derailing recovery plans. Economists say China may step up domestic stimulus and further ease property-sector curbs, while Japan could consider new fiscal support as growth momentum fades. For global businesses, the message is clear: the trade headwinds of 2025 are shifting from cyclical to structural.