Research warns of Europe’s futureproofing gap

Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University, Nyenrode Business University, and the ftrprf research initiative have published a new DAX-AEX Futureproof Index arguing that Europe’s largest listed companies are still making limited progress on environmental transition. The study, covering 52 companies across the Dutch AEX and German DAX, found that their financial value is offset by a combined negative social and ecological value of 80%.

The index uses an “integrated value” model that combines financial, social, and ecological effects into a single measure. Researchers said 31 of the 52 companies analysed still generated positive integrated value, but a small number with very large negative externalities dragged the weighted average into net societal loss. The result reflects the impact of companies with the heaviest environmental and social costs on the wider index.

Sector findings were most severe in areas central to Europe’s industrial transition. According to the report, the negative societal value of the materials sector was 10.6 times its financial value, compared with 9 times in energy and utilities, and 3.7 times in transport. At the same time, those sectors also showed large positive societal value, indicating sizeable transition opportunities alongside rising risks.

Dirk Schoenmaker, Professor at RSM, said: “Although 31 of the 52 analysed companies actually generate positive integrated value, a small number of companies with very large negative impact cause a negative total balance.”

The researchers said environmental constraints are tightening as the cost of climate change and biodiversity loss rises. The report notes that the shadow price of CO2 has increased from about $200 to more than $300 per tonne, raising the implied cost of emissions and increasing pressure on companies that are slow to adapt. Against that backdrop, the report presents futureproofing as a test of whether business models can absorb higher transition costs and stronger policy demands.

This year’s edition also expands the benchmark beyond the Netherlands. After last year’s AEX-only version, the updated study adds Germany, more sectors, and additional themes including biodiversity loss, R&D spillovers, and the gender pay gap. The researchers also said the introduction of the EU’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive has improved the availability of standardised data.

Willem Schramade, Professor of Finance at Nyenrode, said: “To my surprise, I was able to find more standardised data than I had expected. So, in that sense, CSRD works.”

The research team said the broader benchmark is intended to support investors, companies, and policymakers assessing long-term resilience in European business.

The full DAX-AEX Futureproof Index Report is now available.