UK emissions dip in 2024 before COP30

UK greenhouse gas emissions decreased by 0.5% in 2024 to 476 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e), now 43.3% below 1990 levels. This modest decline continues the long-term downward trend towards the 2050 net-zero target, yet masks diverging trends across sectors. The manufacturing sector led the reduction with a 7.4% fall in emissions, dropping from 70 MtCO2e to 65 MtCO2e. However, transport emissions rose by 4.5% to 77 MtCO2e, driven by increased travel demand and slow progress in vehicle electrification and aviation efficiency. Household emissions also increased by 1.7%, marking the first rise since 2021.

Consumer spending remains the largest contributor to national emissions, accounting for 26% of the total, followed by transport at 16.1%. A 4.1% increase in natural gas usage for home heating was the primary factor behind the rise in household emissions, according to the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero. Emissions intensity, measuring greenhouse gases per unit of economic output, decreased from 0.16 to 0.15 thousand tonnes of CO2e per £1 million of gross value added, indicating a gradual decoupling of GDP from emissions. Nonetheless, this efficiency gain may not suffice to counteract the structural reliance on material consumption and fossil-based energy.

Diane Crowe, Group Sustainability Director at Reconomy, highlighted steady progress in business emissions, particularly in manufacturing, but cautioned that the rebound in household emissions points to a deeper consumption challenge. Crowe emphasised the need for integrating circular design into industrial and consumer policy to meet future carbon budgets, as the Climate Change Committee warns of the necessity to adapt to at least 2°C of warming by mid-century.

The release of the 2024 emissions data precedes COP30 in Belém, Brazil, where the UK and other developed nations will be expected to present credible implementation plans for the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). While the UK remains a leader in emissions reduction relative to GDP, trends in household energy and transport highlight persistent gaps in the domestic transition. The upcoming carbon budget period (2028–2032) will challenge the government’s ability to balance industrial decarbonisation with consumer behaviour change, including building retrofits, electric vehicle adoption, and incentives for circular consumption.

For corporate leaders, the data underscores the dual imperatives of maintaining operational decarbonisation while addressing indirect emissions in supply chains and end-use consumption. As household and transport emissions grow, business influence over product lifecycles and materials sourcing becomes increasingly strategic. With global focus on COP30’s progress review under the Paris Agreement, the UK’s marginal emissions decline serves as a reminder of the plateau risk facing mature economies. The future trajectory depends on whether policy measures — from carbon pricing to consumption taxes and circular design mandates — can translate efficiency into systemic change. At 476 MtCO2e, the UK’s emissions narrative in 2024 is not one of reversal, but of reckoning: steady industrial progress, offset by rising everyday consumption. The lesson for policymakers and investors is clear — decarbonisation must extend from production lines to living rooms.