Rachel Reeves used today’s Spring Forecast — the government’s Spring Statement — to double down on a familiar promise: stability first, with major policy changes reserved for the Budget. With markets unsettled by renewed geopolitical risk and energy-price volatility, the Chancellor’s pitch was that predictability is now as valuable to businesses as any late-stage tax change.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) numbers give that message its edge. The watchdog forecasts UK GDP growth of 1.1% in 2026, before a modest lift to 1.6% in both 2027 and 2028. Inflation is forecast to fall from 3.4% in 2025 to 2.3% in 2026, and then settle at 2.0% from 2027 onwards. But the labour market is expected to soften further first, with unemployment rising to 5.3% in 2026, and the OBR noting that labour market conditions “continue to loosen”.
Now on BQ Executive:
Everything business leaders need to know from today’s UK Spring Statement
In Parliament, Reeves reiterated a commitment to “a single major fiscal event a year”, saying it would limit major policy change to the Budget and give businesses and households greater certainty. Rather than unveiling new measures, she pointed to initiatives already in motion that she said would “come into effect” over the year ahead, including “discounts on business energy costs”, skills funding for further education, and “reforms to back entrepreneurs”. She also trailed more detail on innovation later this month, promising to set out plans for “backing innovation and harnessing the power of AI” in her second Mais lecture.
Business reaction has been largely split, along familiar lines that we’ve come to expect from recent government statements. There’s approval of the tone, yet impatience with the absence of operational detail. Andreas Adamides, CEO of Helm, said: “The Chancellor boasts about growth, but British businesses are growing in spite of Government policy, not thanks to it. Soaring costs, higher taxes and rising wage pressures are squeezing firms and killing jobs.”
On employment and skills, Reeves emphasised action targeted at younger people, including a £820 million Youth Guarantee and reforms to apprenticeships. Ben Willmott, head of public policy at the CIPD, said: “Against an uncertain geopolitical backdrop, it’s critically important that the Government creates conditions that improve confidence and stability for businesses to deliver job creation and skills development.”
He added: “Introducing an Apprenticeship Guarantee for 16 to 24-year-olds, a measure strongly backed by employers, would help ensure many more young people have a clear pathway into work.”
For the UK’s startup and SME community, the unanswered question is whether “backing entrepreneurs” translates into practical support for productivity — particularly via digital and AI adoption. Matt Rouif, CEO of global AI visual creation platform Photoroom, said: “It was encouraging to hear the Chancellor reaffirm support for entrepreneurs and small businesses as they are the backbone of the UK economy, accounting for more than 99 percent of all enterprises – so any serious growth strategy must start there. However, the Statement stopped short of outlining how small firms will be supported to adopt AI and digital tools at scale.”
Rouif added: “If the government wants entrepreneurs and small businesses to power UK growth, it should match its positive rhetoric with tangible measures that expand access to AI, strengthen digital skills, and support confident adoption at the grassroots level. AI should not replace human ambition, but remove the friction that holds small businesses back.”
In other words, the Spring Statement offered a macro narrative — easing inflation, softer growth, and a labour market that looks looser before it looks stronger — while businesses focused on delivery: the cost and confidence required to hire, the pathways that bring young people into work, and the tools that help smaller organisations compete at speed. The government has promised more detail within weeks. Business will be listening closely for mechanisms, timelines, and who, exactly, gets supported.
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