UniCredit has raised its profit outlook after reporting stronger-than-expected results, underpinned by income from strategic stakes in rival lenders and the use of tax credits tied to past losses.
The Milan-based bank said it now expects net profit of around €11bn in 2026, an increase on previous guidance, and is targeting approximately €13bn by 2028. The revised outlook follows a robust performance in 2025, when earnings were supported by both operating momentum and non-recurring balance-sheet items.
UniCredit reported a sharp rise in fourth-quarter profit, beating market expectations. Management said results reflected disciplined cost control, resilient revenues, and the growing contribution of equity stakes in other European banks. The lender also benefited from deferred tax assets, which boosted reported income for the year.
Chief executive Andrea Orcel said the updated guidance demonstrated the group’s ability to deliver sustainable profitability while maintaining capital discipline. “We continue to execute our strategy with focus and consistency,” Orcel said, adding that capital returns to shareholders remained a priority.
A key feature of UniCredit’s recent strategy has been the accumulation of minority holdings in other lenders rather than pursuing large-scale acquisitions. The bank has built a significant stake in Germany’s Commerzbank and also holds shares in Greece’s Alpha Bank. Executives have previously described these positions as financial investments that also offer strategic optionality.
The approach has drawn attention across the European banking sector, where consolidation has long been discussed but has proven difficult to execute. By taking stakes without seeking full control, UniCredit has been able to gain exposure to earnings growth in other markets while avoiding the integration risks and regulatory hurdles associated with mergers.
Tax credits were another material factor in the bank’s 2025 performance. These credits, linked to losses incurred in previous years, are expected to continue supporting net income in the near term, though management has emphasised that underlying profitability is increasingly driven by core operations.
UniCredit also reiterated medium-term targets for revenue growth and efficiency, including a declining cost-to-income ratio and returns on tangible equity above 20%. The bank said it would continue to balance investment, capital strength, and shareholder distributions as interest rate conditions across the eurozone evolve.
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