January 2026 M&A Review: US Edition

January’s US deal calendar did not ease into 2026. It arrived with a abruptly with an equally abrupt message: buyers are paying for certainty, and they are doing it across very different industries.

The headline item was a scale play in Hollywood, but the month’s biggest stories were not confined to media. In healthcare, a strategic buyer moved aggressively to broaden its cardiovascular footprint. In coffee, a US drinks group pushed further into a global category under pressure from volatile input costs. In enterprise software, private capital made another case for taking a public company private to move faster. And in payments, a bank opted for capability acquisition, rather than waiting for organic build to catch up.

Optimism about a busy year was not hard to find. Morgan Stanley CFO Sharon Yeshaya said the bank was “seeing an accelerating pipeline in M&A and IPOs”. That confidence sits on a 2025 backdrop that, by some measures, was already close to historic, with global announced M&A value rising sharply year on year and mega-deals returning to the agenda.

Certainty becomes a bargaining chip —

When deals get big, execution risk becomes the product. That was visible in how several January transactions were framed: simplify the structure, make the financing legible, and reduce the reasons a board, investor, or regulator might slow the process down.

Below are the five US-linked deals that best captured the month’s tone.

1) Netflix offers $82.7bn for Warner Bros Discovery studio and streaming assets —

Netflix revised its proposal to an all-cash structure without increasing the $82.7bn price, offering $27.75 per share, according to a regulatory filing. The pivot to cash was explicit about the point it was meant to prove. “Our revised all-cash agreement will enable an expedited timeline to a stockholder vote and provide greater financial certainty,” Ted Sarandos said.

The backdrop was a contested situation, with Paramount Skydance also pursuing the asset base, and the strategic value rooted in franchises and library depth, from Game of Thrones and Harry Potter to DC Comics characters.

2) Keurig Dr Pepper launches $18bn bid for JDE Peet’s —

Keurig Dr Pepper launched a recommended public cash offer valuing JDE Peet’s at roughly $18bn, with an offer price of €31.85 per share. The offer was presented as board-supported, with shareholders representing a large majority of shares committing to the sale.

The strategic rationale was category power: pairing Keurig’s US coffee footprint with JDE Peet’s global reach, while navigating a market shaped by elevated coffee prices and trade frictions. The company also framed the transaction as part of a longer-term reshaping, with plans to split coffee and cold beverage businesses into separate listed companies.

3) Boston Scientific buys Penumbra for $14.5bn —

Boston Scientific agreed to buy Penumbra in a $14.5bn deal, valuing the target at $374 per share, a premium to the previous close. Penumbra was expected to generate $1.4bn in 2025 sales, and its CEO, Adam Elsesser, was set to join Boston Scientific’s board following completion.

Boston Scientific CEO Mike Mahoney described the deal as a “home run” and “financially compelling”. In a month dominated by the language of certainty, this was certainty applied to product strategy: pay up for portfolio depth, rather than wait for an internal build in a competitive therapies market.

4) Hg Capital takes OneStream private for $6.4bn —

Hg agreed an all-cash deal worth $6.4bn, with shareholders receiving $24 per share, a premium to the prior close. General Atlantic and Tidemark were set to become minority investors.

The transaction echoed a broader point advisers have been making: sponsor-led take-privates rise when boards want latitude to invest through product cycles, and when investors are less patient with growth narratives than they were at the IPO peak. OneStream positioned the move as support for accelerating its AI innovation strategy and scaling the software.

5) Capital One buys Brex for $5.15bn —

Capital One said it would acquire Brex in a cash-and-stock deal valued at $5.15bn, expected to close in mid-2026, with the consideration split roughly 50–50 between cash and stock. Brex operates in corporate cards and expense management software, and Capital One highlighted expanded exposure to business customers as a way to reduce reliance on consumer credit. Brex CEO and founder Pedro Franceschi was expected to remain at the helm after the transaction.

In a month of high-profile consolidation, this was the clearest example of a traditional financial player deciding that time-to-capability was worth paying for.

What January’s US M&A sentiment looked like —

Across the month’s top M&A deals, the “why” varied, but the “how” rhymed. Deal structures leaned toward clarity, and buyers were explicit about de-risking the path to a vote, a closing, or an integration plan.

The themes also mapped onto broader expectations for 2026: a supportive, if selective, financing environment, increasing pressure to consolidate in mature categories, and a renewed willingness to buy capabilities rather than attempt slow internal builds. The undercurrent running through several transactions was the same: shorten timelines, widen moats, and lock in demand pools that can withstand volatility.

Bottom line —

• Certainty is a competitive lever. In contested or regulator-sensitive situations, simplified consideration and credible timelines can matter as much as the headline price.
• Buy scale where the demand curve is durable. Healthcare portfolios, enterprise finance stacks, and global coffee distribution are all bets on repeat demand, not novelty.
• Treat capability gaps as M&A questions, not only product roadmaps. The Capital One–Brex logic is a reminder that build-versus-buy is often a timing decision.
• Private capital remains a reset button. Sponsor take-privates are still an answer when speed and reinvestment matter more than quarterly optics.
• Stress-test integration narratives before you announce. January’s biggest deals were framed around clear portfolio moves; the integration case was presented as central, not secondary.

January ended where it began: with a market willing to pay for assets that compress timelines, expand moats, or secure demand, and willing to make the financing and structure part of the headline.