Business leaders across the UK and Ireland are showing faith in their own companies even as their view of the wider economy darkens, according to the latest Vistage CEO Confidence Survey.
The quarterly index rose to 93.6 in Q4 2025, up from 88 in the previous quarter, signalling a modest lift in sentiment. However, the findings suggest that improvement reflects greater self-confidence among business owners rather than optimism about external conditions.
More than half of respondents (54%) said economic conditions had worsened over the past year, while just 6% reported improvement. Looking ahead, 39% expect further deterioration in the next 12 months, compared with 12% who predict better conditions.
While the macroeconomic outlook remains subdued, 63% of SME leaders expect their own sales revenues to rise over the next year, and half (50%) anticipate stronger profitability. Only 6% foresee revenue declines. Investment plans remain resilient: 39% of respondents intend to increase fixed investment in 2026, and a further 38% plan to maintain current levels. Just over one in five (21%) expect to reduce spending.
This internal optimism suggests SMEs are focusing on what they can control — strengthening their operations and preparing for growth, rather than waiting for a wider economic upturn.
Rising costs remain the single biggest concern, cited by 29% of leaders, followed by customer demand (25%). Other challenges include regulatory change (9%), competition (8%), and talent retention (7%). Despite these pressures, most SMEs plan to invest in technology, product development, and people. Nearly half of all leaders (45%) list AI as a top investment priority for 2026, alongside market expansion (44%), technology (41%), and training and development (41%).
The survey also indicates that AI is now deeply embedded in business life. More than seven in ten respondents (72%) say members of their leadership team already use generative AI, while 65% report use by CEOs themselves. Almost half (46%) say employees are using AI tools independently.
Nearly half (49%) of leaders expect AI adoption to reallocate roles, and 14% believe it will create new ones. Only 15% expect overall headcount to fall.
Rebecca Drew, Managing Director of Vistage UK and Ireland, said:
“Our latest survey findings show that CEOs are under no illusions about the economic backdrop. Many see conditions worsening and expect little improvement in the year ahead, yet they continue to back their own businesses by investing in revenue growth, profitability and future capability.”
She added that in an uncertain climate, “access to trusted peers to pressure-test their plans, compare approaches and learn from others’ experience can make the difference between standing still and moving ahead with confidence.”
The Vistage CEO Confidence Index, published quarterly, tracks sentiment among leaders of small and medium-sized enterprises across the UK and Ireland.
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