UK farming is under renewed pressure from post-Brexit trade arrangements, cheaper imports, weaker EU export flows, and concerns that domestic food production could become harder to sustain in mainstream supply chains.
The strain is being felt across several parts of agriculture, with livestock, dairy, poultry, and arable producers confronting a mix of trade friction, input-cost volatility, subsidy reform, labour constraints, and changing supermarket price dynamics.
Farmers and industry groups have long argued that trade deals with major agricultural exporters risk exposing UK producers to competition from countries with lower costs and different production systems. The UK-Australia and UK-New Zealand trade agreements, which came into force in May 2023, removed or reduced tariff barriers over time and remain a flashpoint for domestic producers.
Liz Webster, who farms 647 hectares, warned that the pressure could push British food into a narrower premium market. “It’s just inevitable that if it continues, British food will disappear, unless it’s niche, appealing to a particular wealthy market, because in the mainstream supermarkets British food won’t be able to complete,” she said.
Export data has added to the concern. UK farmed exports to the EU have fallen significantly in both quantity and value since Brexit, while sector estimates point to lower poultry, beef, lamb, and dairy exports. Producers argue that paperwork, border checks, regulatory divergence, and reduced market access have increased costs and reduced competitiveness.
Tom Bradshaw, president of the National Farmers’ Union, said: “There’s been so many global challenges, to try and decipher how much is down to leaving the EU and how much down to global turmoil is difficult.
“But we always warned that [the issue with Brexit] wasn’t going to be the immediate impact, it was sort of a death by a thousand cuts, a slow burn, and that’s exactly what we’re now seeing.”
The Government has argued that it is taking steps to reduce trade friction and support domestic agriculture. Farming minister Stephen Morgan said: “Brexit has been terrible for farming and even the Tories admit they made it worse by selling farmers down the river in bad trade deals. This Labour government is backing British farmers: cutting millions in red tape through a new EU agreement, securing a landmark £800m Gulf trade deal, and delivering a record £11.8bn farming budget.”
The commercial pressure on farming reaches well beyond the farm gate. Food manufacturers, supermarkets, hospitality operators, wholesalers, and procurement teams rely on a domestic agricultural base that is both reliable and cost-competitive. If UK production becomes more expensive or less available, buyers face harder choices over price, origin, resilience, quality, and consumer trust.
Recent consolidation in food manufacturing has shown how supply pressure and scale economics are reshaping the sector, including the Competition and Markets Authority’s clearance of Associated British Foods’ acquisition of Hovis. Staple food categories are being shaped by production capacity, margin pressure, and the need for more resilient operating models.
Agriculture faces similar structural pressure, though with different policy constraints. Farmers cannot adjust production with the speed of many manufacturers, and investment decisions depend on long-term confidence in land use, subsidy rules, labour availability, and market access. When trade policy changes faster than production systems, the risk is that capacity exits before replacement supply chains are secure.
Food security has also become a more prominent commercial issue. The pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, energy-price volatility, and climate disruption have all increased attention on the resilience of food supply. Import competition may reduce costs in the short term, but greater reliance on overseas supply can leave retailers and manufacturers more exposed to currency movements, shipping disruption, weather shocks, and geopolitical risk.
The next stage will depend on whether new trade agreements and the UK-EU sanitary and phytosanitary reset materially reduce friction for exporters. Lower paperwork and easier movement of agri-food goods could support some producers, but the benefits will take time to feed through and may not offset the full impact of cheaper imports or higher domestic costs.
The farming sector’s warning is therefore a supply signal for food companies, retailers, and hospitality groups operating in a market where price pressure remains intense, consumers remain sensitive to bills, and resilience is becoming harder to separate from competitiveness.
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