Sustainable aviation fuel prices have risen 10% over the past year, according to BloombergNEF analysis, underlining the cost and supply challenges facing airlines, logistics operators, and corporate travel buyers.
The research found that SAF production reached 1.9 million metric tonnes in 2025, equivalent to only 0.6% of global jet fuel demand. The figures show that supply remains small compared with the scale of aviation’s decarbonisation challenge, even as airlines, regulators, and customers increase pressure for lower emission flying.
SAF is widely seen as one of the most important near term tools for reducing aviation emissions because it can be blended with conventional jet fuel and used in existing aircraft and infrastructure. Limited production, high costs, feedstock constraints, and policy uncertainty are keeping the market expensive.
The price rise is significant because aviation has few immediate substitutes for liquid fuel. Battery electric aircraft remain limited to short range applications, hydrogen aviation requires new infrastructure and aircraft designs, and demand for air travel continues to recover and grow. SAF therefore sits at the centre of many airline transition plans.
The pressure reaches beyond airlines. Corporate travel programmes, freight forwarders, ecommerce companies, manufacturers, professional services groups, and event organisers all depend on aviation either directly or indirectly. Companies with Scope 3 reporting obligations may have to account for business travel, air freight, and logistics emissions even when they do not control the aircraft.
Higher SAF prices create a cost allocation question. Airlines can absorb some cost, pass it through to passengers and freight customers, or sell corporate SAF certificates and book and claim products. Each route raises questions about transparency, additionality, and customer willingness to pay.
Corporate buyers must decide whether to pay a premium for SAF linked products, reduce travel, shift freight modes, or accept slower progress on emissions. Many companies have reduced business travel since the pandemic, but international sales, supply chain oversight, project delivery, and leadership meetings continue to require flights in some sectors.
The supply constraint also exposes the limits of voluntary action. If SAF remains a tiny share of global fuel demand, corporate buyers may compete for limited volumes and certificates without materially changing aviation emissions at system level. Policy support, production incentives, mandates, and infrastructure investment will shape whether supply scales quickly enough.
Feedstock is one of the most important constraints. SAF can be produced through several pathways, including waste oils, residues, municipal waste, synthetic fuels, and power to liquid processes. Some feedstocks are limited or contested because they are also needed by road transport, chemicals, food systems, and other industries. Synthetic SAF requires large amounts of clean electricity and green hydrogen, linking aviation decarbonisation to the wider energy transition.
The UK and European policy environment is becoming more demanding. Mandates can create demand certainty, but they also risk increasing costs if supply does not grow. Airlines may face a difficult period in which regulatory requirements rise faster than affordable production capacity.
Commercial pressure is likely to affect route economics. Fuel is one of the largest airline costs, and SAF premiums can narrow margins on price sensitive routes. Freight operators may face similar issues when customers demand lower emission logistics but resist higher charges.
Investors will watch whether SAF producers can scale without relying indefinitely on subsidies or customer premiums. The capital requirement is substantial, and production projects must manage technology risk, offtake agreements, feedstock access, energy cost, and regulatory support.
The credibility of aviation net zero plans will depend on how these constraints are handled. SAF can reduce lifecycle emissions compared with conventional jet fuel, but the market must avoid overstating what current supply can deliver. Claims attached to small volumes or certificates will be scrutinised as sustainability reporting standards tighten.
The 10% price rise shows that aviation’s transition is entering a more practical and expensive stage. Demand for lower carbon flying is increasing, but supply remains scarce and costly. Airlines and corporate customers now face harder decisions over who pays, how quickly demand can be reduced, and which SAF investments are credible.
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