Drax has raised its expectations for 2026 earnings towards the top of analysts’ forecasts as it begins integrating the £561m acquisition of Bluefield Solar Income Fund and broadens its UK generation portfolio beyond biomass and flexible power.
The energy group now expects full-year adjusted EBITDA to be around the top of the existing consensus range after strong operational performance during July and August, including additional system-support activity during the summer heatwave.
Analyst consensus compiled by Drax on 4 September put 2026 adjusted EBITDA at £698m, with forecasts ranging from £680m to £711m. The group said its updated expectation remains dependent on continued good operational performance.
The outlook includes Bluefield Solar Income Fund from 1 August. Drax completed the acquisition on 31 July for £561m, with an enterprise value of £1.082bn, adding approximately 0.9GW of operating renewable capacity across 268 assets.
The acquired portfolio comprises around 0.8GW of solar generation and 0.1GW of onshore wind in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. It also carries a 2.9GW gross development pipeline, including approximately 2GW of battery energy storage and 0.9GW of solar projects.
Chief executive Will Gardiner said: “The addition of BSIF brings significant benefits to the Group and the integration is going well.”
The transaction increases Drax’s total capacity under management to approximately 6.1GW and gives the group a much larger position in distributed renewable generation. Bluefield’s operating assets are expected to become a dedicated Solar & Wind reporting segment from 2027, alongside Drax’s Flexible Generation and Biomass businesses.
The acquisition also changes the group’s balance-sheet position. Drax drew £0.8bn from a committed bridge facility to fund the transaction and repay £0.3bn of existing Bluefield facilities, while retaining £0.2bn of Bluefield borrowing.
Net debt is consequently expected to remain above Drax’s long-term target of roughly two times adjusted EBITDA during 2026. The company intends to deleverage towards that level by the end of 2027, making delivery of earnings, synergies, and disciplined development spending central to the economics of the acquisition.
The operational rationale extends beyond simply owning more solar and wind assets. Drax expects to use its existing trading, optimisation, and route-to-market capabilities across the expanded portfolio. It already provides route-to-market services for roughly 2,000 small renewable assets with around 0.8GW of capacity through its Energy Solutions business.
Cost savings are expected from removing Bluefield’s listed-company costs, using Drax’s existing operating platform, and reducing market-access and balancing expenses. The group has not treated the entire 2.9GW development pipeline as committed capital and will assess individual projects against its broader investment framework before proceeding.
About 0.5GW of the solar pipeline has long-term Contracts for Difference in place at strike prices of approximately £69/MWh to £74/MWh in 2026 money. Roughly 0.2GW is in near-term development but remains subject to final investment decisions, with potential operation from 2028 if approved.
The acquisition forms part of a broader diversification of Drax’s generation mix as the UK electricity system becomes more dependent on intermittent renewables and flexible capacity. Solar adds low-marginal-cost daytime generation, while batteries, hydro, gas peaking capacity, and trading can provide flexibility when supply and demand move out of balance.
Drax is also progressing options around its Selby site, where it has 4GW of grid access. Those plans include solar, batteries, open-cycle gas turbines, hydro, and the longer-term possibility of a large-scale data centre. An initial proposal involves a roughly 100MW front-of-the-meter facility, with a planning application expected in the coming months.
As at 15 September, Drax had more than £1bn of contracted forward power sales for 2026 to 2028 across its Renewables Obligation biomass, pumped-storage, and hydro generation assets, together with more than £800m of associated renewable obligation certificates.
The stronger earnings outlook therefore arrives alongside a material expansion of the group’s asset base and borrowing. The next phase will depend on how effectively Drax integrates hundreds of renewable assets, selects projects from the acquired development pipeline, and converts the enlarged portfolio into cash flow while bringing leverage back towards its stated long-term target.
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