UK grocery inflation has increased for the second consecutive month, adding to pressure on household spending as discount supermarkets and online retailers continue to gain ground against established competitors.
Grocery prices increased 2.6% in the four weeks to 1 November 2026 compared with a year earlier, according to Worldpanel by Numerator.
The figure represents a modest acceleration from the 2.5% recorded during the previous four-week period, following a sustained easing in price inflation earlier in the year.
Take-home grocery sales increased 2.2% in value over the latest four weeks, reflecting continued spending growth ahead of the Christmas trading period.
The price inflation measure tracks changes in comparable grocery products and differs from the UK’s official consumer price inflation figures.
The results come as higher winter household costs place additional pressure on disposable incomes, increasing competition between retailers seeking to attract customers through pricing, convenience, and product availability.
The latest market share figures show considerable differences in supermarket performance.
Lidl overtakes Morrisons by market share —
Lidl has moved ahead of Morrisons in Britain’s supermarket rankings, accounting for 8.6% of spending during the 12 weeks to 1 November.
The discount retailer increased its market share by 0.4 percentage points compared with the equivalent period last year, supported by sales growth of 6.6%.
Morrisons recorded sales growth of 2%, maintaining an 8.3% share.
Lidl’s stronger performance places it fifth among the major supermarket businesses measured by Worldpanel, behind Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Asda, and Aldi.
Tesco remained the country’s largest grocer with a market share of 27.8%, while its sales increased 1.2%.
Sainsbury’s accounted for 15.5% of spending, its highest share since April, following sales growth of 0.8%.
Asda held 11.3% of the market, while Aldi accounted for 10.4% following sales growth of 0.4%.
The figures demonstrate that supermarket market share can change even when several competitors continue recording positive sales growth.
Retailers growing faster than the wider market can increase their proportion of customer spending, while those expanding more slowly may lose share despite selling more than in the previous year.
Online specialist Ocado remained one of the strongest performers.
Its sales increased 12.3% over the latest 12-week period, marking its thirtieth consecutive period of double-digit growth.
Ocado’s market share reached 2.3%, matching its previous record and increasing from 2.1% a year earlier.
Waitrose also increased its share, rising from 4.4% to 4.5% following sales growth of 2.2%.
Emergency supplies alter shopping patterns —
Worldpanel also identified increased purchasing of essential household products following the government’s Be Ready public awareness campaign, launched on 22 October.
The campaign encourages households to maintain sufficient basic supplies to manage disruption to essential services for up to three days.
During the ten days following its launch, sales of hand sanitiser increased 83% compared with the same period last year.
Bottled water sales rose 67%, while tinned and jarred goods increased 37%.
The number of people purchasing tinned meat each day increased 43%, equivalent to approximately 400,000 additional shoppers, although the typical pack size purchased remained around 500g.
Worldpanel found that fewer than one-third of households bought bottled water during October, suggesting that the increase reflected more customers adding essential products to regular shopping trips rather than widespread bulk purchasing.
Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel, said the findings were consistent with households responding to the government’s advice without engaging in panic buying.
Seasonal demand also influenced spending. Approximately 3.3 million households purchased pumpkins during October, with the number sold increasing 10% year on year.
The average price paid for a pumpkin fell 12% to £1.20, demonstrating that changes in promotional pricing and product mix can differ substantially between individual grocery categories.
The latest figures leave supermarkets entering the Christmas trading period with slightly faster grocery inflation, modest overall spending growth, and continued market share gains concentrated among selected discount and online operators.
