Much of England’s essential food production is concentrated in areas exposed to moderate, high, or very high drought risk, increasing the pressure on agricultural supply chains after an exceptionally dry year.
Analysis by Rebalance Earth found that 81% of England’s fresh produce is grown in areas experiencing water stress. Around 77% of wheat, 75% of barley, and 74% of oilseed rape are produced in areas rated at moderate to very high drought risk.
The analysis also puts 70% of sugar beet and 67% of potatoes within those categories. Acute exposure extends across substantial shares of several staple crops, including 30% of wheat and barley, 28% of oilseed rape, 27% of fresh produce, and 21% of potatoes.
Kirsty Wilman, chief operating and financial officer at Rebalance Earth, said: “Drought builds slowly and quietly, and rarely gets the same attention as flooding, but its impact runs right through the economy: lower yields, strained supply chains and higher prices in all of our shopping baskets.”
The figures arrive during continuing pressure on water resources across England. Environment Agency data for 18 to 24 September showed ten areas remained in drought, with the remainder in prolonged dry weather.
Central, eastern, and south-east England received less than 5mm of rain during the week. By 22 September, England had received 58% of its long-term average rainfall for the month, while river flows were falling at almost all monitored sites.
Fourteen reservoirs or reservoir groups were less than half full, and water storage across several central and southern areas continued to decline.
Pressure on agriculture has eased from its summer peak as cooler conditions and rainfall reduced irrigation demand, but the Environment Agency continues to report concerns over whether farm reservoirs and other storage will refill sufficiently through the winter.
Some farm storage remains at only 0% to 20% capacity. There are also 533 restrictions on abstraction licences and 1,383 voluntary restrictions reducing abstraction by 50% across affected catchments.
Those figures translate an environmental problem into a direct operating constraint. Crop production depends not only on annual rainfall totals but on when water arrives, whether it can be stored, and whether growers are legally able to abstract enough during critical periods.
Food manufacturers and retailers are exposed through yield, quality, availability, and price. Reduced harvests can alter procurement costs and specifications, while processors may face their own water requirements in areas where agricultural, industrial, household, and environmental demand compete for limited supply.
Concentrated production increases the risk. Businesses can diversify sourcing between UK regions or import additional produce when domestic output falls, but those alternatives introduce currency, logistics, trade, quality, and overseas climate exposure.
Geographical diversification also offers less protection when extreme weather affects several producing regions simultaneously. Drought, heat, flooding, and water restrictions can all disrupt international agricultural markets at the same time as UK buyers seek replacement supply.
Longer-term supplier contracts, weather monitoring, crop planning, and improved data on water availability can help manage the exposure. Capital investment in irrigation efficiency, reservoirs, soil health, and water storage can also reduce vulnerability.
The economics are more difficult for smaller agricultural businesses operating on tight margins. Infrastructure investment requires finance and a predictable return, while reservoirs need sufficient winter rainfall to refill before they can provide protection during the following growing season.
Water policy introduces a further constraint. Abstraction restrictions protect rivers and ecosystems during low-flow periods, which can limit agricultural access precisely when crop demand is highest.
Rebalance Earth’s wider investment model is built around nature-based projects intended to improve resilience to physical risks such as drought and flooding. The company argues that restoring catchments and other natural infrastructure can help businesses manage environmental risks while attracting long-term institutional capital.
The immediate test will be the autumn and winter recharge period. Sustained rainfall is needed to restore groundwater, public reservoirs, and farm storage before the 2027 growing season.
A weak winter recharge would leave producers entering next year with smaller water buffers and could increase the operational impact of another dry spring or summer.
The crop data therefore adds a supply-chain dimension to England’s drought conditions. Water availability is becoming an increasingly material input into sourcing strategy, alongside labour, energy, transport, commodity prices, and trade exposure, particularly for businesses dependent on crops concentrated in the country’s driest regions.
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