DMCC says global trade is being rebuilt around permanent disruption, with tariffs, AI, supply chain stress, and competition for clean energy inputs reshaping how companies source, invest, and sell.
The organisation’s Future of Trade 2026 report, launched in London on 10 June, is the sixth edition of its biennial study. It draws on roundtables with senior leaders, policymakers, and trade experts across major global trade centres, alongside a survey of leading businesses and trade practitioners.
The report frames the current trade environment around four forces: the AI shift, tariff disruption, rebuilt supply chains, and the clean energy race. It says nearly 20% of global merchandise imports are now subject to tariffs or similar measures, while AI-related goods account for 15% of global trade volume but drove 43% of merchandise trade growth in the first half of 2025.
DMCC also says South-South trade now accounts for 35% of global flows, outpacing North-North trade, and that the gap between investment in fossil fuels and sustainable energy sources grew to $102bn in 2025. The report’s central argument is that the assumptions that underpinned global trade for decades are weakening.
The findings fit a broader pattern visible across business policy. Tariffs are being used as instruments of industrial policy, geopolitical leverage, economic security, and domestic political signalling. Companies that built supply chains around cost, efficiency, and predictable rules now face a more interventionist environment.
The UK steel tariff debate is one example. Ministers are consulting industry after warnings that planned safeguards could raise costs for steel users. Automotive and EV supply chains face a separate set of tariff and origin-rule pressures, with carmakers seeking more time before tougher EV trade rules apply.
DMCC’s report also points to the growing importance of AI goods and digital capability in trade. AI is changing internal productivity, the composition of traded goods, the competitiveness of enterprise software, and the infrastructure needed to participate in high-growth digital sectors. Companies unable to digitalise may find themselves disadvantaged operationally and in global market access.
Supply chain strategy now demands more than extra inventory. Diversification involves political risk, supplier mapping, sanctions exposure, logistics routes, critical minerals, clean energy inputs, data flows, and resilience against regional conflict.
The clean energy race adds another layer. EVs, batteries, grid infrastructure, heat pumps, solar manufacturing, hydrogen systems, and critical minerals are being treated as industrial assets as much as climate solutions. Governments want domestic capability, secure supply, and strategic control over inputs. Companies operating in these markets face policy support in some areas and trade friction in others.
The rise of South-South trade also changes assumptions about growth. Trade flows are increasingly being redirected through emerging hubs, regional blocs, and commodity corridors that do not follow old North Atlantic patterns. UK companies may find opportunities in services, finance, legal, insurance, logistics, clean technology, and advanced manufacturing, but those opportunities require sharper market intelligence.
Leadership teams are being asked to plan under persistent uncertainty. Procurement, finance, legal, risk, and strategy functions need to work together rather than treating trade as a specialist back-office concern. Tariffs can affect margin. Sanctions can affect market access. Shipping disruption can affect inventory. AI policy can affect competitiveness. Energy transition policy can affect capital allocation.
DMCC’s report suggests that disruption should be treated as a permanent operating condition rather than a temporary interruption. Companies will need trade strategies that can handle policy volatility, regional fragmentation, and technology-led change. The businesses that adapt fastest will be those able to combine geopolitical awareness with operational flexibility, investment discipline, and clearer visibility across their supply chains.
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