ASML raises forecast as AI investment accelerates

ASML raises forecast as AI investment accelerates

ASML raised annual sales guidance as semiconductor equipment demand grew. Major customers are planning additional manufacturing capacity well beyond 2028.


Dutch technology company ASML has increased its annual revenue forecast after reporting record third-quarter sales, as global investment in artificial intelligence continues to drive demand for advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment.

The company recorded net sales of €11.7bn during the three months ended 30 September 2026, compared with €9.3bn in the preceding quarter.

Net income increased to €5bn from €2.9bn, while its gross margin rose from 54% to 57.5%.

ASML now expects full-year revenue of between €44bn and €45bn, compared with its previous forecast of €43bn to €45bn. It anticipates a full-year gross margin of approximately 56%.

For the fourth quarter, the company is forecasting sales between €14.2bn and €15.2bn, with a gross margin of around 57%.

The results reflect substantial investment in semiconductor production capacity by technology companies seeking to meet demand for more powerful processors, memory, and other components used in AI systems.

ASML supplies specialised equipment that enables semiconductor manufacturers to produce advanced chips. Its systems are used by major technology groups operating across Asia, Europe, and the United States.

The company sold 113 new lithography systems during the third quarter, compared with 86 in the preceding three months.

Revenue from servicing and upgrading equipment already installed at customer facilities also increased, reaching approximately €3.3bn compared with €2.8bn in the second quarter.

The expansion of this activity reflects demand from manufacturers seeking to improve production efficiency and increase the output of existing facilities.

ASML’s earnings were also affected by investment-related gains, including a revaluation of its stake in French AI company Mistral. The increase in net income therefore should not be attributed entirely to higher equipment sales or operating margins.

The latest results nevertheless indicate sustained demand across ASML’s core business, with customers planning additional manufacturing investment several years ahead.

Capacity constraints extend towards 2030

Chief executive Christophe Fouquet said customers were increasing their short- and medium-term equipment forecasts, with some expressing interest in placing orders for delivery in 2029 and 2030.

The company now expects that its planned production capacity for both 2027 and 2028 will be insufficient to satisfy all anticipated customer demand.

ASML is investigating additional capacity expansion for 2028, beyond the increases outlined in its earlier financial guidance.

The situation reflects the length of the investment cycle supporting advanced technology infrastructure. New semiconductor production capacity requires substantial expenditure, specialist equipment, trained workers, and complex facilities.

Equipment suppliers face similar constraints. Expanding production involves investments in engineering, suppliers, manufacturing space, and the ability to deliver and service highly specialised systems.

For customers, securing equipment availability several years in advance can become an important element of capital planning, particularly where competing manufacturers are pursuing large expansion programmes simultaneously.

The implications extend beyond semiconductor companies. Businesses developing data centres, cloud services, and AI applications depend on the availability of processors and memory produced through these manufacturing systems.

Equipment supply constraints can influence the pace at which computing infrastructure is expanded, although the ultimate effect on technology buyers also depends on inventory, customer priorities, and the performance of competing suppliers.

ASML’s results underline Europe’s significant position within a global technology supply chain frequently associated with American software companies and Asian semiconductor manufacturers.

The company’s manufacturing capabilities are strategically important, while its international customer base also creates exposure to geopolitical disputes and export restrictions affecting advanced technologies.

Its expansion plans include further development of operations in the Netherlands, with a new Eindhoven campus intended to support additional manufacturing capacity.

The latest results indicate that semiconductor equipment demand remains strong and that customers are extending investment plans well into the next decade.

ASML’s immediate priority is increasing production and servicing capacity sufficiently to meet those commitments while managing the operational challenges of rapid expansion.

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