Taylor Wimpey has reduced its annual UK housebuilding forecast to approximately 10,500 completions after a weaker autumn selling season, with higher mortgage costs and household expenses continuing to restrict demand.
The company had previously expected between 10,600 and 10,800 completions, excluding joint ventures, but now anticipates fewer deliveries and adjusted operating profit towards the bottom of market expectations.
Analyst consensus for full-year adjusted operating profit stands between £262m and £299m, indicating that earnings are likely to be close to the lower end of that range.
Taylor Wimpey recorded a net private sales rate of 0.60 homes per outlet per week between 29 June and 8 November, compared with 0.63 during the equivalent period last year.
Excluding bulk transactions, the sales rate declined more substantially, falling from 0.61 to 0.54 homes per outlet per week.
Bulk transactions involve the sale of multiple properties under a single arrangement, meaning their inclusion can obscure changes in demand from individual homebuyers.
Cancellation rates remained unchanged at 17%, suggesting that the principal deterioration came from fewer new sales rather than a substantial increase in customers withdrawing from existing agreements.
Chief executive Jennie Daly said: “The Autumn selling season has been more subdued, as higher mortgage rates and living costs continue to reduce customer affordability.”
The weaker trading has also affected the company’s forward order book. At 8 November, Taylor Wimpey had 6,839 homes under contract, worth approximately £1.98bn, compared with 7,253 homes valued at £2.12bn a year earlier.
Average selling prices have softened further in some markets, while incentives remain an important part of securing purchases.
Investment becomes more selective —
Taylor Wimpey is maintaining tighter controls over capital expenditure and land acquisitions while continuing to expand its network of sales outlets.
The company expects construction cost inflation of between 3% and 4% during 2026, adding further pressure to profitability as sales volumes weaken.
Its short-term landbank declined from approximately 75,000 plots at the end of June to 73,000 at the end of October, reflecting a selective approach to purchasing additional development sites.
Management is prioritising smaller land opportunities that require less capital and offer greater flexibility over development schedules.
Meanwhile, the number of active sales outlets increased from 206 to 225 over the past year, with 59 new outlets opened during 2026.
A broader sales network creates additional opportunities to reach prospective buyers, although its financial benefits remain dependent on sufficient demand and conversion of enquiries into completed purchases.
The company expects to finish 2026 with approximately £250m in net cash, having returned around £240m to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
The outlook reflects uncertainty over the timing of land transactions and other working capital requirements during the final months of the year.
Weakness in private buyer demand has also affected other major British housebuilders. Barratt Redrow reported declining completions earlier in November, although transactions involving institutional buyers provided some support to reservations.
Taylor Wimpey has welcomed the government’s proposed Your First Home scheme, which is intended to support access to homeownership, but its financial contribution has not yet been established.
For the remainder of the year, the company is concentrating on managing construction volumes, land commitments, and operating costs against its reduced sales expectations.
