Concern about international conflict, shipping disruption, and energy prices remains elevated across UK businesses, adding pressure to sourcing, transport, and operating-cost decisions.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics show that 29% of businesses with at least ten employees were concerned that international conflict would affect their supply chains during the next year.
The proportion was broadly stable compared with June but 19 percentage points higher than in December 2025. A further 20% were concerned about shipping disruption, an increase of 12 percentage points over the same period.
Among larger businesses reporting supply chain concerns, 52% expected the cost of sourcing materials to be affected. Some 47% anticipated an effect on transport costs, a proportion broadly unchanged from June but 14 percentage points above its December level.
Energy exposure extends beyond businesses directly involved in importing or manufacturing. The survey found that 57% of businesses expressed some degree of concern about energy prices in late July. Among organisations with at least ten employees, the proportion rose to 70%.
Concern about fuel prices was similarly widespread. Across all businesses, 60% reported some level of concern, while the figure for employers with ten or more staff was 70%.
The data comes from the voluntary fortnightly Business Insights and Conditions Survey, covering responses collected between 20 July and 2 August. The ONS classifies the figures as official statistics in development, providing a timely indication of business conditions alongside published confidence intervals.
The findings show how geopolitical risk is being transmitted into routine commercial planning. Conflict can affect the price or availability of fuel, industrial materials, components, insurance, freight capacity, and trade finance even where a company has no direct exposure to the countries involved.
Transport disruption can produce several secondary effects. Longer routes increase fuel consumption and reduce vessel availability, while delays require businesses to hold more stock or accept a greater risk of interruption.
Those changes tie up working capital and can reduce the efficiency gained from lean inventory models. Companies may also need to renegotiate customer commitments where delivery dates become less predictable.
Larger organisations often have more capacity to diversify suppliers, negotiate contracts, or hedge commodities and currencies. They also tend to operate more complex international supply chains, leaving them exposed across a wider range of markets, transport routes, and counterparties.
Smaller businesses may have fewer direct international links but less negotiating power when suppliers pass on higher costs. Limited balance sheets and storage capacity can make it harder to build resilience through additional inventory or alternative sourcing.
The continuing level of energy concern is significant because electricity, gas, and fuel costs affect almost every sector. Manufacturers and logistics operators face direct consumption costs, while retailers, hospitality businesses, offices, and service companies absorb them through premises, transport, and supplier pricing.
Higher input costs do not automatically produce equivalent increases in selling prices. Companies must judge whether customers will accept increases, whether competitors will hold prices, and how much pressure can be absorbed through margins or productivity measures.
The survey points to a risk environment extending beyond temporary shortages of individual products. Businesses are managing overlapping exposure to conflict, energy, freight, sourcing, sanctions, and regulatory change, with decisions in one area affecting cash flow and customer pricing elsewhere.
Recent UK purchasing managers’ surveys have shown divergent conditions between sectors. Manufacturing continued to expand in July, although at a slower rate, while construction remained in contraction and services returned to growth.
Supply chain and energy risks cut across each of those readings rather than remaining confined to goods producers. Service businesses rely on technology hardware, energy, transport, office infrastructure, and customers operating in internationally exposed industries.
Companies responding to disruption are likely to continue reassessing supplier concentration, contract terms, inventory levels, insurance, and transport routes. Better data can improve visibility across complex networks, but it cannot remove physical exposure to ports, energy markets, conflict, or extreme weather.
Resilience measures also carry costs. Additional suppliers require due diligence and quality controls, while higher stock levels consume cash and warehouse capacity. Longer-term contracts may provide certainty but can leave businesses exposed when market prices fall.
The ONS figures indicate that international risk has returned to a central position in operational planning. The increase since December suggests that disruption is influencing sourcing and cost decisions across a broad section of UK enterprise rather than a small number of directly exposed industries.
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