SME confidence rises despite economic uncertainty

Vistage has reported a further rise in confidence among SME leaders in the UK and Ireland, with its latest CEO Confidence Index increasing to 96.8 from 93.6 in Q4 2025. The data points to a business community that remains cautious on the wider economy, but increasingly prepared to invest in its own growth plans.

That divide runs through the latest findings. Only 12.5% of leaders said economic conditions had improved over the past year, while 62.5% said conditions were unchanged and 25% reported a decline. Looking ahead, just 6% expect the economy to improve, with 62.5% forecasting stability and 31.25% expecting conditions to worsen.

Even so, sentiment inside businesses is materially stronger. Nearly nine in ten respondents, or 87.5%, expect sales revenue to increase over the next 12 months. Half expect profitability to improve, 37.5% expect it to hold steady, and only 12.5% project a decline. Half also said they plan to increase fixed expenditure, suggesting that many SMEs are choosing investment over retrenchment.

Hiring plans reinforce that message. More than half of leaders, or 56.25%, said they expect to increase headcount over the coming year. Vistage said 87.5% of businesses are creating new roles, 50% are upgrading talent, and 43.8% are backfilling vacancies. While AI skills are not yet a standard requirement in job postings, more than a third of respondents expect roles to become more technology-enabled as AI tools become part of everyday workflows.

That shift is already visible in adoption patterns. Vistage found that 62.5% of SMEs are using generative AI in business operations, 43.8% in customer engagement, and 18.8% in finance, although 31.25% have yet to deploy it. Governance remains uneven: 25% of respondents said they have comprehensive AI policies, another 25% are developing them, and 43.75% still have no formal framework in place.

Rebecca Drew, Managing Director at Vistage UK and Ireland, said: “Confidence among SME leaders continues to build, even against a backdrop of ongoing economic and geopolitical instability. This quarter’s rise reflects a growing sense of control and clarity among business leaders, who are choosing to focus on what they can influence within their own organisations – investing in people, growth and technology.”

The latest Index suggests SME leaders are drawing a distinction between macroeconomic uncertainty and their own operating decisions. While external confidence remains subdued, internal planning is becoming more assertive, particularly around hiring, capital spending, and AI deployment. To learn more about Vistage’s leadership programmes and research, visit its website.